نشریه آینده پژوهی مدیریت
سال بیستم شماره 3 (پیاپی 82، پاییز 1388)

This paper evaluates nine alternative accrual-based models for detecting earnings management. TheEvaluation compares the two type errors (type I and II). The empirical analysis is conducted by testingfor earnings management using three distinct samples of firm-years:A) Randomly selected sample of 1000 firm-years,B) Sample of 1000 randomly selected firm-years in which a fixed and known amount of accrualsmanipulation has been artificially introduced; andc) A sample of firms that we have strong evidence to that their earnings have been managed.Sample (A) was designed to investigate the type I error. Type I error arise when the null hypothesis,that earnings are not systematically managed, is rejected when the null is true. Samples (B) and(C)were designed to test the type II error. Type II error arises when the null hypothesis, that earnings arenot systematically managed, is not rejected when it is false. In this paper, Type II error is generated intwo ways. First, we use simulations in which earnings have been artificially manipulated by added afixed and known amount of accruals. Second, we use another set of firm-years, for which we havestrong priors that earnings have been managed.The empirical analysis generates the following major evidences. First, all of nine models appear wellwhen applied to investigation the type I error. Second, regression-based models (Jones1991, ModifiedJones 1995, Dechow et al 2002, and Two deflated models) to detect earnings management, introducesthe lower type II error than naïve models(Healy1985, De Angelo 1986, Modified De Anglo 1994).Third, the modified Jones model 1995, and Dechow et al 2002, have lower type II error than the otherregression-based models.

Examines how customers loyalty is influenced by their relationship with the firm at two distinct levels:The specific relationship customers have with their salesperson ; and the overall relationshipcustomers have with the firm . The findings highlight the importance of strong customer-salespersonrelationships in the development of customers overall evaluations of the supplier firm.Furthermore , both types of relationship were found to impact positively on the probability ofcustomers exhibiting behavioral loyalty.

Batch production is one of producing processes and cause to decrease production costs if itsprogramming is optimized. This method has many applications in chemical, mechanical parts andpolymer industries. Te literature review show a lot of researches concentrated on Batch ProductionScheduling but shelf time have a little attentions from author. In this paper we modeled BatchProduction scheduling with heuristic method of operations sequence to separate constraint dependenceof fixed setting costs from objective function where products are perishable and have shelf time. Inthis study we applied Mixed Integer Nonlinear Programming (MINLP) to model problem and solvedan numerical instance with using Lingo software package.

In the rapidly changing work life, organizational justice may become increasing important toemployees and managers. The purpose of this article is design an effective organizational justicemodel for Iranian public organizations. For design conceptual mode, first antecedents andconsequences of organizational justice was identified. There for this study examined the impact oforganizational justice on organizational commitment, trust, OCB, turnover intentions and jobsatisfaction also the impact of organizational climate on organizational justice was examined. And themodel was evaluated using structural equation modeling(SEM). The study also indicated empiricalevidence of different perception of organizational justice and its dimensions in four kinds of publicorganizations(exteractional, distributive, regulational and symbolic organizations) . The result of thisresearch show that Organizational justice in extractional organizations is higher than otherorganizations.

One of the main issues in export planning especially for increasing export to developing countries isthe degree of awareness about mutual capacities in producing and exporting goods.Main purpose of this article is to study and determine non-oil export potential of Iran in trading withsouth western Asia countries. Calculations and analysis are based on total non-oil trade of thesecountries and also 21 sections of the 201za harmonized system. This study has utilized ex- post data(import and export) of Iran and 23 countries of south western mutual exporting potential index.The results show that Iran has many opportunities in exporting non-petroleum products to countries ofthe region especially in substantial metals and their products, chemical products, plastic material andtheir products, textile material and their products and also food and beverage.So reinforcing regional cooperation including developing intra regional trade with countries such asUAE, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt, Iraq, Pakistan Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Oman, Jordan, can form goodopportunities for Iran.

Insurance industry is one of the most valuable industry in every society that causes development'scountry. Today in all developed country insurance plays an important role in development of countries, because they believe that insurance plays an important role in all part of economy and bycompensation damages of doing economic and developed activities of society increase investmentmotivation. In other word, Insurance industry as a collection of economic agencies consider cost andbenefit and in optimum point should prepare the best services by the least of cost that it leads to fastermovement of country development . One of the characteristic of insurance companies is being it's vitalrole in financial matters that makes dynamic movements or changes in growing and developing capitalmarket , beside in they prepare security in all economic activities via corporation and using financialsources . In spite of fundamental and important role of Insurance industry in financial market , activeentities in this markets don't have cohesiveness and integration and they manage process traditionallythat causes effects on other economic parts. Insurance industry partnership in capital market in Iran incomparison of other developing and developed country shows that it can increased between 30% -100% . We can use marketing techniques to improve Insurance industry in Iran by considerationpotential capabilities in Insurance industry in Iran.

Daily increasing changed and necessity of conducting reforms in systems of higher education hasintroduced new expectation from scientific centers, especially universities which always invites highereducation to a scientific and cultural jump through assessment to key challenges and invitation for astatement of new missions.Announcement of year of accountability by supreme leader and recommendation of Unesco worldconference to higher education systems of world for being responsive and accountability ofuniversities towards accepting results and consequences, duties and decision- making is one of thebasic motives of this research.Researcher after review of research literature , models, theories, conceptual frameworks including :management based on Islamic values, knowledge management, multi-dimensional and comprehensivemodels of accountability, cubic framework of evaluation processes, information technologicalframework and review the latest conducted research regarding accountability, has provided a modelconsist of five basic elements ( philosophy& aims, theoretical foundation ,conceptual framework,administrative phases and evaluation & re-engineering) and 8 components and 60 subcomponentsthrough of questionnaire.Conclusions shows that the sample groups emphasis on basic elements of model and eight basiccomponents of accountability including: authority and responsibility, management and leadership,effective and purposeful supervision, attention to interested groups, information management, humanresources, communication management and standards of teaching and learning and 45 subcomponent.And ultimately has suggested model with 91/9 percent among groups under study were discernedsuitable. Finally, practical suggestions and recommendations were presented for the better applicationof this model in higher education system of Iran

the managed care is an example of the new system of care taking which is designed to control the care expense, manage the utilization of the services, and evaluate the services done for the improvement of the quality and make a proper cost- effectiveness through the managed care organization .the most important objective is, study of planning, organization and control in selected country and designing a model for Iran. it is a practical research and trough a comparative – descriptive procedure like those performed in the USA, Australia, UK, Malaysia. The utilization of the descriptive statistics for the analysis of the questionnaire by means of Delphi technique is done. in order to encourage the care taking of the patients in a proper way and to increase the economical effectiveness of the system in the investigated countries , some programs like" Integrated Care" are put in to practice, so that the expenses are controlled to a large extent. Primary care groups in UK are the simplest form and managed care in the USA is the most complex process the integrated care. Planning, organizing and control of this model is accepted by mean 78.2 ± 1.15, 70.14 ± 1.6 and 78.76 ± 3.6(Pvalu .05). it seems that, health care expenditure could be reduced considerably through establishing managed care organizations (MCOs). So، this model can create a new way of insurance and health care services.

In this paper, a new approach for the time arrangement of the resources and its applications ispresented. If sequence of jobs is neither deterministic nor controllable, then sequencing and schedulingissue will knot to the decision making under conflict and uncertainty that has been addressed in thecontext of sequencing and scheduling models for the first time in here. Models created under theseconditions are named wariness models. In this paper, a general approach is presented for the solutionof such problems and moreover, a pessimistic-based method for solving the problems with the fixedresources arrangement is introduced. Anti-Akers-x algorithm has been propounded to determineidentical job sequences in an n × m environment to maximize Fmax. The wariness models complexity ischecked and then an application example is propounded from the wariness models and it was solvedusing Anti-Akers-x algorithm and the solution obtained was checked by the general method. Finally,Anti-Akers-x algorithm’s validation and verification are tested. It is concluded that: the relatedproblems must be solved by game theory and the presented schedule is able to solve this strongly NPhardproblems correctly and in reasonable time duration.

Measuring the performance of a production system has been an important task in management forpurposes of control, planning, etc. The Balanced Scorecard allows us to do just that. BSC is widelyused in government and industry because of the clear representation of the relationship and logicbetween the key performance indicators(KPI) of 4 perspectives - financial, customer, internal process,and learning and growth. in the other hand , Traditional studies in data envelopment analysis (DEA)view systems as a whole when measuring the efficiency, ignoring the operation of individualprocesses within a system. We present and demonstrate a multi-criteria approach for evaluating everyprojects in different stages. Our approach integrates the balanced scorecard (BSC) and dataenvelopment analysis (DEA) and develops an extended DEA model. The input and output measuresfor the integrated DEA–BSC model are grouped in “cards” which are associated with " B S C ". Withefficiency decomposition, the process which causes the inefficient operation of the system can beidentified for future improvement. finally we illustrate the proposed approach with a case studyinvolving six banking branches.